Additive prognostic value of serum calcium to the ESC risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Hypocalcemia has been shown to be involved in the adverse outcomes of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). We aimed to determine the incremental value of adding hypocalcemia, defined as serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L, on top of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic algorithm, for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in APE patients, which in turn could lead to the optimization of APE management. METHODS: This study was conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2016 to December 2019. Patients with APE were retrospectively analyzed and divided into 2 groups based on serum calcium levels. Associations between hypocalcemia and adverse outcomes were assessed by Cox analysis. The accuracy of risk stratification for in-hospital mortality was assessed with the addition of serum calcium to the current ESC prognostic algorithm. RESULTS: Among 803 patients diagnosed with APE, 338 (42.1%) patients had serum calcium levels ≤ 2.12 mmol/L. Hypocalcemia was significantly associated with higher in-hospital and 2-year all-cause mortality compared to the control group. The addition of serum calcium to ESC risk stratification enhanced net reclassification improvement. Low-risk group with serum calcium level > 2.12 mmol/L had a 0% mortality rate, improving the negative predictive value up to 100%, while high-risk group with serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L indicated a higher mortality of 25%. CONCLUSION: Our study identified serum calcium as a novel predictor of mortality in patients with APE. In the future, serum calcium may be added to the commonly used ESC prognostic algorithm for better risk stratification of patients suffering from APE.

Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and to derive a prognostic model for patients with APE in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Inpatients with APE were enrolled from West China Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore risk factors for in-hospital mortality and develop a prognostic model. RESULTS: A total of 813 subjects with APE were included in this study, of whom 542 were in the training set and 271 were in the test set. Multivariable regression analyses indicated that age, male, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, elevated NT-proBNP or troponin T, malignancy, chronic renal insufficiency, and respiratory failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.899, with a sensitivity and specificity of 89.7% and 77.7%, respectively. The model had higher prediction accuracy than the PESI and sPESI. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model has proven excellent discrimination and calibration, which may be a useful tool to help physicians make decisions regarding the best treatment strategy.

Clinical and Epidemiological Features of SARS-CoV-2 Patients in SARI Ward of a Tertiary Care Centre in New Delhi.

IMPORTANCE: Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in India. Since the first laboratory confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 was reported from Kerala on January 30, 2020 novel coronavirus infected pneumonia (NCIP) has been presenting to the hospital emergencies as severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). We aim to find out the rate of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in SARI cases and further clarify the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCIP in New Delhi, India. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To find out the rate of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in SARI cases presenting to the hospital emergency and describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCIP. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective, single-center case series of the 82 consecutive hospitalized patients with SARI and subsequent confirmed NCIP cases at Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi between 10th April 2020 and 30th April 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and treatment data were collected and analyzed. The primary composite end-point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation or death. Patients were categorized as severe pneumonia and non-severe pneumonia at time of admission and outcome data was compared. RESULTS: Of the 82 SARI cases, 32(39%) patients were confirmed to be SARS-CoV-2 positive. The median age of NCIP cases was 54.5 years (IQR, 46.25 - 60) and 19(59.3%) of them were males. 24(75%) cases were categorized as severe pneumonia on admission. 22(68.8%) patients had 1 or more co-morbidities. Diabetes mellitus 16(50%), hypertension 11(34.4%) and chronic obstructive airway disease 5(15.6%) were the most common co-existing illnesses. Compared with the patients who did not meet the primary outcome, patients who met the primary outcome were more likely to be having at least 1 underlying comorbidity (p-0.03), diabetes (p-0.003) and hypertension (p-0.03). Common symptoms included dyspnea 29(90.6%) followed by cough 27(84.4%), fever 22(68%), bodyache and myalgias 14(43.75%). Median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was 3 days. The most common pattern on chest X-ray was bilateral patchy nodular or interstitial infiltration seen in 30(93.8%) patients. Leucopenia was present in 10(31.2%) of the patients, with majority of patients presenting with lymphocytopenia, 24(75%) [lymphocyte count (1106 cells/ dL), interquartile range {IQR}, (970-1487)]. Thrombocytopenia was seen in 14(43.8%) patients, pancytopenia in 10(31.2%) patients and anemia was seen in 14(43.8%) patients. Hypoalbuminemia was present in 22(68.8%) cases. Raised CK-MB was seen in 7(21.9%) patients. The primary composite end-point occurred in 12(37.5%) patients, including 9(28.13%) patients who required mechanical ventilation and subsequently expired. 3(9.3%) of these patients who recovered, were subsequently shifted to COVID-19 ward from the ICU. The patients who met the primary outcome were older in age (56.5 years vs 50 years), had significantly higher SOFA scores (6 vs 3.5), were in shock (41.7% vs 5%), in higher respiratory distress (66.7% vs 10%), had lower mean arterial oxygen saturation (85% vs 89.5%), had higher CK-MB values (66 vs 26)U/L [6(54.5%) vs 2(9.5%)], had hypoalbuminemia (100% vs 50%) and acute kidney injury 8(72.7%) vs 5(23.8%) on admission. Of the 50 non-COVID-19 SARI patients in our study cohort, 13 (26%) patients met the primary composite outcome. Of them 9 (18%) patients expired and remaining 4 patients have subsequently recovered. As on 17th May 2020, 23 patients were still hospitalized, recovering in COVID-19 ward. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: In this single-center case series from New Delhi, out of 82 patients of SARI, 32 patients were confirmed NCIP, with a COVID-19 positivity of 39%. 75% of NCIP presented in severe pneumonia and 37.5% required ICU care. The case fatality rate was 28%.